$38.5bnOpenAI 2025 net loss, mostly a one-off non-cash conversion charge
$20.92bnOpenAI operating loss on $13.07bn revenue
$17.2bnOpenAI paid to Microsoft across the year
$1tnHyperscaler combined AI capex across 2025 and 2026 (BIS)
$1.25bnAnthropic reported monthly compute bill
$30bn / $10bnNvidia investment into OpenAI and into Anthropic
<90% to >96%Sydney and IBM logical-qubit survival per correction cycle
$2bn+US Commerce incentives pledged to nine quantum firms
$38.5bnOpenAI 2025 net loss, mostly a one-off non-cash conversion charge
$20.92bnOpenAI operating loss on $13.07bn revenue
$17.2bnOpenAI paid to Microsoft across the year
$1tnHyperscaler combined AI capex across 2025 and 2026 (BIS)
$1.25bnAnthropic reported monthly compute bill
$30bn / $10bnNvidia investment into OpenAI and into Anthropic
<90% to >96%Sydney and IBM logical-qubit survival per correction cycle
$2bn+US Commerce incentives pledged to nine quantum firms
Issue #94 • 9 July 2026

OpenAI's leaked accounts reveal the cost of the AI race

OpenAI's audited 2025 accounts leaked and the FT verified them: a £28.8 billion ($38.5 billion) net loss, though most of that is a one-off charge, not cash burned. The Bank for International Settlements named an AI capital-spending bust one of its top three threats to financial stability. Kraken is seeking a European banking licence in Lithuania as the EU stablecoin rulebook forced Tether off regulated exchanges. Six of twelve lenses are hot or heating, led by the economics of artificial intelligence.

3 No time? Three things you need to know today
6.6
AI & Agents (today 6)
4.6
Quantum & Compute (today 6)
5.7
Digital Markets & Assets (today 6)
6.6
Digital Trust (today 7)
5.3
Interface & Spatial (today 5)
4.3
Bio-Human (today 4)
6.9
Business Finance & Policy (today 8)
4.6
Consumer (today 5)
5.1
Left Field (today 5)
4.4
Climate & Energy Transition (today 5)
5.7
Geopolitical Realignment (today 5)
6.1
Workforce & Talent (today 6)
Week 25 . 15 to 19 June 2026

The Concentration Bill Comes Due

“Washington kept Anthropic’s two best models switched off worldwide, SpaceX spent its fresh listing buying Cursor outright, Microsoft handed a hyperscaler’s European billing to a single processor, and Coinbase tried to fold the entire brokerage into one tokenised stack, while half of US adults now use a chatbot they do not trust.”
Three convergences defined the week: concentration, four ways. Money for Machines, Identity for the Machine. Adoption Without Belief.
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Previous: Week 24: The Machines Get Their Own Money →
Deep Dive • 29 May 2026
The AI Backlash
Mapping the jeopardy in the maximalist worldview, across jobs, capital, energy, trust, AI slop and a turning public square. With the implications for an incumbent bank.
Deep Dive • 27 Mar 2026
The Distribution Scarcity Thesis
Why distribution channels are scarcer than products in the agentic economy, and what it means for banks, fintechs, and platform strategy.
Deep Dive • 24 Mar 2026
The Incumbent Half-Step
Why Experian's ChatGPT tool reveals financial services' AI blind spot. When incumbents build AI wrappers instead of AI-native products.
View all briefings, deep dives & spotlights →
Strategic Foresight • Horizon 2 to 15 Years

The Foresight Engine

Proprietary trend registry, scenario canvas, and customer archetype analysis. Grounded in daily intelligence. Designed to surface the strategic questions the organisation needs to ask now.

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Active Trends
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Candidates
10
Scenarios
Open Foresight Engine → v2.0 • VIM + CLA scoring • Scenario monitor refreshed 19 June 2026 • Vanishing Point and Grey Zone at High • Q2 Provocation: “The Lab That Finds Our Vulnerabilities Is Also Running Our Compliance”
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Testable hypotheses from the weekly synthesis, tracked from proposal to validation or kill, tagged H1 to H3.
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Scenario Monitor & Innovation Shortlist
Plausibility across 42 scenarios, plus five experiments scoped for a central innovation team. Latest: 19 June 2026.
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Innovation Shortlist →
30 Jun 2026 Non-invasive brain-to-text closes on the surgical implants
25 Jun 2026 The FCA Adopts a Post-Legislative Model for Regulating AI
24 Jun 2026 SoFi Turns Plain-English Ideas Into Automated Trading Strategies
23 Jun 2026 The Bank of England Trades Stablecoin Holding Caps for an Issuance Guardrail
22 Jun 2026 Pollen Street Buys the Core Banking Engine Under Many Lenders
19 Jun 2026 Microsoft Hands Its EMEA Consumer Payments to Checkout.com
18 Jun 2026 Coinbase Recasts Itself as an Everything-Exchange for Finance
17 Jun 2026 Apple Maps Its Next Device Wave
16 Jun 2026 Britain Moves to Bar the Under-Sixteens from Social Media
15 Jun 2026 The Banks That Own Zelle Launch a Dollar Stablecoin
12 Jun 2026 The FCA Publishes Its First Emerging Technology Horizon Scan
11 Jun 2026 Mastercard Opens Payment Rails to Autonomous Machines
10 Jun 2026 Anthropic Ships a Frontier Model With Misuse Safety Built Into the Product
9 Jun 2026 SpaceX Prices the Largest Listing in History
8 Jun 2026 Mastercard Makes Always-On Settlement a Card-Network Default
5 Jun 2026 Anthropic Embeds Engineers Inside the NSA to Run Offensive Cyber
4 Jun 2026 Microsoft Frames Always-On Agents as Its Biggest Bet Since the Cloud
3 Jun 2026 Washington moves to gate frontier model releases
2 Jun 2026 Anthropic Files Confidentially for the First Frontier-Lab IPO
1 Jun 2026 SoFi Launches the First US National-Bank Stablecoin Inside a Banking App
29 May 2026 Anthropic Eclipses OpenAI on a Final Pre-IPO Series H
28 May 2026 Anthropic Books SpaceX Compute as the Largest Single-Customer GPU Contract on Record
27 May 2026 Uber Exhausts Its Annual AI Coding Budget Inside Four Months
26 May 2026 A Chartering Path Redraws the Regulated Banking Perimeter
25 May 2026 Regulated Digital-Asset Rails Take Institutional Shape as Market-Structure Rules Advance
22 May 2026 A Public SpaceX Filing Turns One Listing Into an Index-Wide Event
21 May 2026 Recursive Self-Improvement Crosses From Lab Disclosure Into a Live Regulatory Design Problem
20 May 2026 Worldline-Klarna Pact Extends Flexible Payments Across Europe's Biggest Acquirer
19 May 2026 Google I/O Stages a Four-Partner Smart-Glasses Push as Android XR Lands on Faces
18 May 2026 Anthropic Talks Imply a Frontier-Lab Valuation Near a Top-Three Bank
15 May 2026 Embodied AI Sustains Eight-Hour Autonomous Production Shift
14 May 2026 Chinese Labs Close the Effective Compute Gap with the US
13 May 2026 Sam Woods at the PRA Names Frontier AI as a Materiality Question for UK Financial Services
12 May 2026 Foundation Labs Pivot from Model Vendor to Deployment Company
11 May 2026 Foundation Models Embed Inside Bank Core Systems via Forward Deployed Engineers
8 May 2026 SpaceXAI Emerges as the AI Compute Landlord
7 May 2026 Anthropic Locks Multi-Year TPU Capacity Inside Google's Backlog
6 May 2026 FIS Picks Anthropic to Run Bank Compliance Investigations
5 May 2026 Pentagon Picks Eight Without Anthropic as Altman Reframes AI Jobs Pitch
1 May 2026 Mythos Reframes Cyber Attacker Economics at Industrial Scale
30 Apr 2026 Visa Routes Stablecoin Settlement Across Nine Blockchains
29 Apr 2026 Workday Loses HCM Monopoly as Enterprise AI-Readiness Opens Replatforming Window
28 Apr 2026 Anthropic Agents Close Workplace Trades Without Human Sign-Off
27 Apr 2026 Bank-Domain Foundation Models Reach Production at Revolut, Nubank and Mastercard, Adyen Buys Talon.One for £635M (€750M), and KelpDAO Drains £11.2bn from Aave
24 Apr 2026 Anthropic Hits £740B ($1 Trillion) Secondary Valuation Passing OpenAI, Meta Cuts 8,000 Jobs as Microsoft Offers 51-Year-First Voluntary Retirement, and Google Unveils TPU 8 Dual-Chip Agent Stack
23 Apr 2026 Meta Logs 8,000 Staff Keystrokes as xAI Secures £44B Cursor Option, Google Deep Research Max Bundles PitchBook and S&P, and FCA Names 8 AI Live Testing Firms
22 Apr 2026 AWS Trainium Commitment Hits £74B as Agent Payment Rails Stack Up Outside Card Networks and Open-Source Kimi K2.6 Beats Closed Frontier on Coding
21 Apr 2026 £50B Goes On-Chain as Agent Liability Rails Crystallise While Mythos Preview Forces Global Bank Regulator Response
15 Apr 2026 First AI Agent Insurance Products Reach £37M Coverage as US States Split Three Ways on Catastrophe Liability
14 Apr 2026 Two Physical Attacks on OpenAI's Chief Executive Signal the Kinetic Threshold in Technology Backlash
13 Apr 2026 Anthropic crosses OpenAI in annualised revenue as venture capital posts its most concentrated quarter on record
11 Apr 2026 The Strongest Model Stays in the Lab
10 Apr 2026 Agentic payment infrastructure passes live deployment threshold across three independent network standards within seven days
9 Apr 2026 Tokenised settlement infrastructure crossing from design to live deployment as three independent infrastructure signals converge within 48 hours
8 Apr 2026 Anthropic Unveils Mythos and Project Glasswing: The First Frontier Model Positioned as a Cybersecurity Inflection, Not a Productivity Tool
7 Apr 2026 The Week AI Agents Started Coming for Bank Margins: Inertia Premium Under Attack as Labs Ration Compute
4 Apr 2026 Drift Protocol's £216M Hack and Claude Code's Source Leak Expose the Fragile Security Layer Beneath AI and Crypto Infrastructure
3 Apr 2026 Anthropic Acquires Coefficient Bio for £303M ($400M) in Stock as AI Labs Cross Into Biological Research
2 Apr 2026 OpenAI Raises £92B ($122B) in Largest Venture Round in History as Enterprise AI Revenue Overtakes Consumer Subscriptions
1 Apr 2026 Iran Conflict Opens Digital Front as IRGC Names 18 US Tech Companies as Targets
31 Mar 2026 Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History Meets AI Infrastructure Bottleneck
29 Mar 2026 AI Agents Threaten the Bank-Customer Relationship as Starling Makes First UK Move
28 Mar 2026 AI Lab Economics Enter Capital Markets Phase as Anthropic Targets October IPO
27 Mar 2026 UK Banks Race to Deploy Agentic AI as Starling, Lloyds and Visa Move in a Single Week
26 Mar 2026 FCA Signals Payments Regulation Rewrite as Agentic AI Goes Live Across Global Banking
25 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-25
24 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-24
23 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-23
21 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-21
20 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-20
19 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-19
18 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-18
17 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-17
16 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-16
14 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-14
13 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-13
12 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-12
11 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-11
10 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-10
9 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-09
7 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-07
6 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-06
5 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-05
4 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-04
3 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-03
2 Mar 2026 Issue 2026-03-02
28 Feb 2026 Issue 2026-02-28
27 Feb 2026 Issue 2026-02-27
26 Feb 2026 Issue 2026-02-26